Medicine in 5 Years (2031) | The Future of Medicine

Five years is a short time in medicine: drugs that come onto the market in 2031 are already in clinical trials today, and laws that will then apply have already been passed. This is why this period is the easiest to estimate. In the first part of our series, we describe what is very likely by 2031 – and where there could be surprises.

About this series: “The Future of Medicine” looks ahead 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 and 100 years. The further ahead we look, the more speculative the scenarios become. We therefore indicate how well founded a statement is and update the articles regularly. This version: October 2026.

The starting point in 2026

Germany is ageing rapidly. According to the population projection of the Federal Statistical Office, around one in four people will be 67 or older by about 2035. Life expectancy at birth reached new highs in 2025 of 83.6 years for women and 79.1 years for men. At the same time, many regions lack GPs, nurses and specialists. Worldwide, the WHO expects a shortfall of around eleven million health workers by 2030. Medicine in the coming years will above all have to answer one question: how can more people be cared for well with fewer staff?

Very likely by 2031

AI becomes a matter of course in practices and hospitals

A large proportion of doctors’ letters, reports and documentation will be pre-drafted by AI and checked by professionals. In radiology, colonoscopy and mammography screening, AI support will become standard, provided that reimbursement is settled – the large studies for this are already available. From August 2028, the high-risk obligations of the EU AI Act will apply to AI in medical devices. This is likely to bring more transparency but also to push smaller providers out of the market.

Health data flows

By 2031, the electronic patient record will become a normal part of every treatment, supplemented by a digital medication plan and laboratory values. With the European Health Data Space, the patient summary and e-prescriptions are also to become usable across national borders. Pseudonymised healthcare data will become accessible for research on a larger scale.

First contact becomes more digital

Initial assessment by app or telephone, video consultations and digital follow-up care will become much more common. A well-organised initial assessment, for example via the 116 117 number in Germany, is intended to relieve pressure on emergency departments. People with symptoms will more often speak first to a digital system or a non-medical professional and will then be directed to the appropriate level of care.

New therapies from today’s trials

Weight-loss drugs that act on gut hormones such as GLP-1 are being tested for further conditions, such as heart, kidney and liver diseases. Gene and cell therapies will remain expensive but will become an option for more rare diseases and individual types of cancer. AI-designed drugs are being tested in several clinical trials. Approval by 2031 is possible but not certain.

Likely, but open

More prevention through data: risk models could enable more targeted screening, for example based on individual breast cancer or heart risk rather than age alone.
Wearables in healthcare: readings from watches, rings or patches could feed more often into medical care, for example in heart failure or high blood pressure. Whether they improve outcomes remains to be shown in studies.
Blood tests for many types of cancer: tests that look for traces of tumour DNA in the blood are being further developed. It has not yet been shown that they reduce cancer mortality.

What will hardly change

Even in 2031, most diseases will be caused by the same risk factors as today: smoking, lack of exercise, unhealthy diet, excess weight, alcohol, high blood pressure. The greatest health gains will still come not from new technology but from prevention and the good treatment of known diseases. And the conversation between patient and doctor will remain at the heart of medicine.

How we will know whether this scenario is coming true

Proportion of insured people who actively use their ePA (April 2026, according to a survey: just under a quarter)
Inclusion of AI-assisted reading in the mammography screening programme
Number of medical devices with AI approved in the EU
First approval of a medicine whose active substance was designed with AI
Development of waiting times for specialist appointments

The series “The Future of Medicine”

More on the current situation: AI in Medicine 2026 – an overview.

Note: This article describes possible developments based on current knowledge. It is not a prediction and does not constitute medical advice.

Medicine in 5 Years: What Doctor’s Visits and Healthcare Could Look Like in 2031

The starting point in 2026

Very likely by 2031