Medicine in 10 Years: What Could Change in Prevention and Treatment by 2036

In medicine, ten years corresponds roughly to the journey of a drug from early research to approval. What could be everyday practice in 2036 is starting today in laboratories and trials. The second part of our series is about a major shift: from repairing diseases to detecting and preventing them early.

About this series: “The Future of Medicine” looks ahead 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 and 100 years. We indicate how well founded a statement is and update the articles regularly. This version: October 2026.

The setting in 2036

By around 2035, about one in four people in Germany will be 67 or older. Chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart failure, osteoarthritis and dementia are increasing, while the number of people of working age is falling. Germany’s hospital reform is leading to greater specialisation: complex procedures are being concentrated in fewer, better-equipped hospitals, and much else is moving into outpatient care.

Likely developments

Early detection becomes more individual

Today, screening examinations are based mainly on age and sex. By 2036, they could depend more on personal risk, calculated from family history, lifestyle, laboratory values, imaging and genetic information. Those at high risk would be examined earlier and more often, those at low risk less often. Initial studies are testing this, for example for breast cancer.

Blood tests for diseases that are detected late today

For Alzheimer’s disease, there are already blood tests that detect typical protein changes. With lecanemab and donanemab, the first antibodies that can slow progression in the early stage have been approved in the EU – with relevant side effects and only for selected patients. By 2036, the diagnosis of dementia is expected to become earlier, simpler and more accurate. Whether there will be significantly more effective therapies by then remains open.

Metabolic medicine in transition

Medicines that target gut hormone receptors such as GLP-1 have changed the treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity. If they become cheaper and their benefits for the heart, kidneys and liver are further confirmed, they could be among the most frequently prescribed medicines by 2036. Open questions concern long-term safety, costs and how to manage stopping treatment.

Cancer therapy tailored to the blueprint

Genetic testing of tumours is becoming standard. Personalised mRNA-based cancer vaccines tailored to the mutations of a patient’s own tumour are currently being tested in clinical trials. If their benefit is demonstrated, they could become part of treatment for some types of cancer by 2036.

AI as a colleague in the background

By 2036, medical AI is likely to be involved in most areas of diagnostics: reading images, evaluating laboratory trends, recognising dangerous drug combinations. At the same time, the question of how doctors can maintain their own skills is becoming more pressing. A study on colonoscopy showed in 2025 that this is not a theoretical problem.

A growing threat: resistant pathogens

Not all trends are positive. An analysis by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance project in The Lancet (2024) estimates that between 2025 and 2050 more than 39 million deaths worldwide could be directly attributable to antibiotic resistance. Whether it is possible to develop new antibiotics and use existing ones carefully will be one of the most important questions for medicine up to 2036. AI-assisted drug discovery is seen as a source of hope here.

What would be different for patients

• more video appointments and more care at home, especially for chronic diseases,
• screening more closely tailored to personal risk,
• more responsibility for one’s own health data – and more ways to use it,
• new, often expensive therapies whose funding must be negotiated by society.

How we will know whether this scenario is coming true

• Introduction of risk-based screening programmes in statutory health insurance
• Routine use of blood tests in dementia diagnosis
• Approval of the first personalised cancer vaccines
• Number of newly approved antibiotics with new mechanisms of action
• Proportion of treatments performed on an outpatient basis after the hospital reform

Note: This article describes possible developments based on current knowledge. It is not a prediction and does not constitute medical advice.

Updates

• October 2026: first version

Sources

• Deutsches Ärzteblatt: Deutschland altert rasant (Dezember 2025)
• GBD 2021 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators: Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050. The Lancet 2024
• Europäische Arzneimittel-Agentur (EMA): Bewertungen zu Lecanemab (Leqembi) und Donanemab (Kisunla)
• HMP Global: AI Exposure May Reduce Polyp Detection Skills of Endoscopists (2025)